*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *           AL922015 07/13/15 18 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
TCGI (%)                                             15.6                                22.5

HDIV (x10-7s-1)   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0   1.0
VORT (x10-6s-1)   1.0   0.5   0.3   0.2   0.0  -0.6  -0.6  -0.6  -1.0  -1.1  -1.2  -1.1  -1.3
DV24 (x10-6s-1)  -1.0  -0.7  -0.9  -1.1  -0.6   0.0  -0.4  -0.5  -0.2   0.0  -0.1  -0.7  -0.7
VSHD (kt)          27    32    33    35    36    34    41    38    46    56    60    42    36
MLRH (%)           48    48    51    54    55    63    68    73    77    71    62    66    67
PCCD (%)           35   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
TNUM             1.50   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A

LAT  (deg N)     37.6  38.5  39.5  40.6  41.8  44.0  46.0  46.7  45.9  44.5  43.4  43.6  45.0
LON  (deg W)     67.9  66.3  64.4  62.4  60.1  55.0  50.1  45.3  40.5  35.6  30.6  25.1  19.6
DTL  (km)         506   502   458   413   389   306   247   574   952  1372  1741  1294   869
TRACK SOURCE     BAMG  BAMG  BAMG  BAMG  BAMG  BAMG  BAMG  BAMG  BAMG  BAMG  BAMG  BAMG  BAMG

Prob of Genesis (t= 48h) =  15.6 is  0.6 times the sample mean ( 27.9)
Prob of Genesis (t=120h) =  22.5 is  0.6 times the sample mean ( 40.3)

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CONTRIBUTIONS OF CLIMATOLOGY AND INDIVIDUAL PREDICTORS TO TCGI PROBABILITY  

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   FCST  %CONT       AVG   FCST  %CONT
CLIM (%)                        27.9                    40.3
HDIV (x10-7s-1)   -1.3    0.1   -3.4      -1.2   -0.6   -4.3
DV24 (x10-6s-1)   -0.2   -0.5   -4.6      -0.2   -0.4   -5.7
VSHD (kt)         16.8   35.0  -13.9      19.0   41.4  -19.8
MLRH (%)          64.9   56.5   -0.4      61.3   63.8    0.3
PCCD (%)          29.1   34.7    0.9      28.7   34.7    0.9
TNUM               0.9    1.5    9.0       0.9    1.5   10.8

%CONT = % contribution to TCGI probability

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

CLIM = Climatological Probability of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
HDIV = 850-mb GFS Horizontal Divergence
DV24 = 24-hr Change in GFS 850-mb Vorticity (VORT)
VSHD = 850-200 mb GFS Vertical Shear
MLRH = 600-mb GFS Relative Humidity
PCCD = % GOES WV Pixels Colder Than -40C
TNUM = TAFB T-Number