*         NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX          *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           EP982024 10/04/24 00 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       31%                                 33%

LAT  (deg N)     13.2  13.5  13.6  13.8  14.0  14.4  15.0  15.4  14.9  13.9  13.3  13.3  13.6
LON  (deg W)    134.6 134.5 134.5 134.5 134.4 134.5 135.1 136.1 137.2 138.4 139.3 139.1 138.3
DTL  (km)        2264  2263  2259  2252  2255  2230  2149  2033  1936  1853  1795  1815  1875
TRACK SOURCE     AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  TABM  TABM  TABM

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   31% is  0.7 times the sample mean (  44%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   33% is  0.6 times the sample mean (  56%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -2.0    0.2   1.6%      -2.0    0.2   2.7%
VORTICITY          1.6    0.8   5.9%       1.5    0.4   4.0%
VERTICAL SHEAR    12.9   10.5   9.5%      14.9   10.6  16.8%
RH                79.1   71.8   4.0%      74.8   68.4   3.0%
GOES              42.9   21.3   2.5%      42.8   21.3   1.9%
DVORAK             0.9    1.5   7.3%       0.9    1.5   4.9%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 2.1, February 2018