*         NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX          *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           EP982023 08/12/23 06 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       41%                                 54%

LAT  (deg N)     14.2  14.7  15.0  15.4  15.5  15.6  15.4  15.4  15.4  15.4  15.3  15.0  14.8
LON  (deg W)    110.7 111.4 112.2 113.0 113.9 115.8 117.5 119.3 121.1 123.1 125.1 127.1 129.1
DTL  (km)         837   859   906   890   918  1014  1146  1274  1390  1536  1702  1891  2053
TRACK SOURCE     AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   41% is  0.9 times the sample mean (  44%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   54% is  1.0 times the sample mean (  56%)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -2.0    1.2   0.8%      -2.0    0.6   2.9%
VORTICITY          1.6    1.5  10.8%       1.5    1.8  15.4%
VERTICAL SHEAR    12.9    7.6  13.1%      14.9   12.8  22.9%
RH                79.1   77.2   6.3%      74.8   68.5   4.2%
GOES              42.9   33.0   4.8%      42.8   33.0   4.3%
DVORAK             0.9    1.0   5.2%       0.9    1.0   4.1%

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 2.1, February 2018