*         NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX          *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           EP952024 08/03/24 00 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       47%                                 80%

LAT  (deg N)     12.2  12.1  12.1  12.2  12.4  13.1  14.3  14.9  14.7  14.0  13.6  14.1  15.1
LON  (deg W)    128.4 128.2 127.9 127.7 127.1 125.1 122.4 120.0 118.6 117.8 116.6 115.7 115.3
DTL  (km)        2199  2191  2166  2143  2080  1870  1574  1363  1283  1286  1246  1147  1030
TRACK SOURCE     AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   47% is  1.1 times the sample mean (  44%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   80% is  1.4 times the sample mean (  56%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -2.0   -1.6   4.2%      -2.0   -3.0  13.6%
VORTICITY          1.6    1.1   9.7%       1.5    1.7  18.4%
VERTICAL SHEAR    12.9   15.0  10.0%      14.9   21.0  24.2%
RH                79.1   73.6   5.8%      74.8   80.5   7.3%
GOES              42.9   21.7   3.3%      42.8   21.7   3.6%
DVORAK             0.9    2.0  13.8%       0.9    2.0  12.7%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 2.1, February 2018