* NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX * * GFS VERSION * * EP952023 07/19/23 18 UTC * TIME (hr) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 Prob of Genesis 64% 64% LAT (deg N) 11.8 12.1 12.5 12.8 13.3 14.5 15.7 16.7 17.5 18.7 20.1 21.6 22.9 LON (deg W) 114.2 115.3 116.4 117.5 118.5 120.3 122.1 123.7 125.2 126.8 128.4 130.0 131.9 DTL (km) 1299 1323 1341 1368 1392 1419 1434 1488 1548 1574 1605 1660 1726 TRACK SOURCE TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TCGI 0-48h Genesis Forecast: 64% is 1.5 times the sample mean ( 44%) TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast: 64% is 1.1 times the sample mean ( 56%) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS ******* 48-HR ****** ******* 120-HR ****** AVG TCGI CONT AVG TCGI CONT DIVERGENCE -2.0 -4.1 8.6% -2.0 -1.5 8.8% VORTICITY 1.6 2.7 21.5% 1.5 1.9 19.1% VERTICAL SHEAR 12.9 11.3 14.6% 14.9 23.4 20.9% RH 79.1 86.4 7.9% 74.8 77.5 6.7% GOES 42.9 26.2 4.9% 42.8 26.2 4.0% DVORAK 0.9 1.0 6.8% 0.9 1.0 4.8% --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius) GENESIS CLIM = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) DIVERGENCE = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1) VORTICITY = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1) VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt) RH = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%) GOES = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%) DVORAK = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB Version 2.1, February 2018