*         NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX          *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           EP922024 07/16/24 06 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       50%                                 50%

LAT  (deg N)     13.9  14.3  14.9  15.5  16.1  16.9  17.6  18.3  19.0  20.0  21.5  23.3  25.3
LON  (deg W)    124.6 124.9 125.2 125.2 125.1 125.0 125.7 127.1 128.5 130.0 131.6 133.2 135.0
DTL  (km)        1770  1760  1737  1697  1648  1578  1575  1624  1685  1748  1813  1777  1756
TRACK SOURCE     TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   50% is  1.1 times the sample mean (  44%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   50% is  0.9 times the sample mean (  56%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -2.0    0.9   1.4%      -2.0    0.9   2.3%
VORTICITY          1.6    1.9  14.5%       1.5    1.8  14.9%
VERTICAL SHEAR    12.9    3.2  17.4%      14.9   15.1  21.3%
RH                79.1   82.4   8.7%      74.8   77.9   5.6%
GOES              42.9   37.8   6.3%      42.8   37.8   4.9%
DVORAK             0.9    0.5   1.7%       0.9    0.5   1.1%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 2.1, February 2018