*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           AL972023 08/01/23 12 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                        6%                                 14%

LAT  (deg N)     43.0  44.8  45.8  46.8  47.7  49.3  50.6  51.5  52.2  52.0  51.2  51.3  52.6
LON  (deg W)     54.2  51.0  48.2  45.5  42.8  37.7  32.2  26.0  19.0  10.7   2.0  -5.2  -9.9
DTL  (km)         413   266   389   559   747  1119  1514  1080   593    29   -73  9999  9999
TRACK SOURCE     AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:    6% is  0.2 times the sample mean (  30%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   14% is  0.3 times the sample mean (  43%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -1.0    0.6   1.6%       1.0   -0.9   4.8%
VORTICITY          1.7    2.0   3.4%       1.4    2.3   7.9%
VERTICAL SHEAR    16.3   54.3   0.0%      18.4   55.5   0.0%
RH                73.1   56.6   0.0%      70.9   66.0   0.9%
GOES              29.1   18.5   0.3%      29.3   18.5   0.2%
DVORAK             0.8    0.5   0.6%       0.8    0.5   0.7%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 2.1, February 2018