*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           AL962023 07/30/23 12 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       19%                                 52%

LAT  (deg N)     21.0  21.9  23.1  24.3  25.1  26.8  28.5  30.5  32.7  35.5  39.6  44.6  49.2
LON  (deg W)     48.5  49.3  49.6  49.9  50.2  50.8  51.5  52.3  52.8  52.3  51.0  49.2  47.2
DTL  (km)        1751  1754  1756  1766  1769  1797  1838  1801  1555  1246   807   382   428
TRACK SOURCE     AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   19% is  0.6 times the sample mean (  30%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   52% is  1.2 times the sample mean (  43%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -1.0   -2.0   5.2%       1.0   -2.0  15.2%
VORTICITY          1.7    0.7   2.8%       1.4    1.2  12.3%
VERTICAL SHEAR    16.3   22.7   6.7%      18.4   21.3  15.1%
RH                73.1   72.8  -0.1%      70.9   71.9   3.0%
GOES              29.1   17.6   0.5%      29.3   17.6   0.6%
DVORAK             0.8    1.0   3.5%       0.8    1.0   5.8%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 2.1, February 2018