*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           AL922023 08/25/23 06 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       26%                                 29%

LAT  (deg N)     19.6  20.1  20.7  21.3  22.1  24.3  26.9  28.8  29.8  30.2  30.7  31.5  32.5
LON  (deg W)     43.7  44.7  45.5  46.2  47.0  48.8  50.6  51.8  52.2  52.6  52.9  53.1  53.2
DTL  (km)        1884  1879  1900  1927  1950  1872  1820  1834  1873  1830  1767  1678  1571
TRACK SOURCE     AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   26% is  0.9 times the sample mean (  30%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   29% is  0.7 times the sample mean (  43%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -1.0   -0.2   4.3%       1.0   -0.1   6.3%
VORTICITY          1.7    1.0   4.4%       1.4    0.4   5.0%
VERTICAL SHEAR    16.3   13.0  12.2%      18.4   17.8  11.2%
RH                73.1   68.9  -0.1%      70.9   73.0   2.1%
GOES              29.1   17.0   0.6%      29.3   17.0   0.4%
DVORAK             0.8    1.0   4.5%       0.8    1.0   3.9%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 2.1, February 2018