Motta, Zehr

A statistical typhoon intensity forecasting scheme, called STIFOR5D, which utilizes climatology and persistence to produce forecasts out to 120 hours was supplied to B. Sampson at the Naval Research Laboratory in Monterey CA.  This is in partial fulfillment of grant received from the Navy to develop a Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction System (STIPS).  STIFOR5D is being used as both an operational and verification tool at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Hawaii.  Future interaction will make the Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme (STIPS), which utilizes forecast synoptic conditions in addition to climatology and persistence to make forecasts, operational within the Navy’s suite of hurricane forecasting models.

A pair of updated statistical hurricane intensity forecasting schemes, one for the East Pacific and another for the Atlantic, (known as SHIFOR), which utilizes climatology and persistence to produce forecasts out to 120 hours was supplied to J. Gross at the National Hurricane Center.  This is in fulfillment of grant received from the Insurance Friends of the National Hurricane Center to develop such models.   SHIFOR is being used as both an operational and verification tool at the National Hurricane Center for the 2001 hurricane seasons.