Tropical Cyclone Research External Interactions
AIRS Standard Retrieval HDF files have been downloaded from the Goddard Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC) for three hurricanes for the 2002 and 2003 hurricane seasons. The DAAC help desk was notified of problems with the first files downloaded and they proceeded to solve those problems before further files were captured. The AIRS retrievals contain data at 28 levels which will be compared to Global Positioning System (GPS) soundings taken during aircraft reconnaissance flights of the hurricanes in question. (D. Hillger, R. DeMaria)Work with the Naval Research Laboratory on the development of a Consensus (5 members)/Ensemble (5 members) (or Consemble) tropical cyclone intensity prediction system continues. Forecasts for tropical cyclone intensity change are created using the Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. Forecasts are provided to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center so that they can be utilized in their forecasting activities. Results in the Northern Hemisphere suggest that the consemble significantly improves forecasts in the 48-72 hour forecast time period. In the Southern Hemisphere these forecast are the first to product skillful intensity forecasts in this region of the world. (J. Knaff)
A note discussing the pitfalls of selective consensus forecasting in tropical cyclone track forecasting has been prepared for publication with personnel from the Naval Research Laboratory in Monterey . Selective consensus forecasting refers to the process of a forecaster removing a member or members from a consensus of global tropical cyclone tracks to form a new consensus forecast. The selective consensus was compared to a consensus created from the global models. The overall results for the 2000 through 2005 seasons show that the use of selective consensus produces slightly less skillful forecasts and that as the use of selective consensus increases forecast skill decreases, suggesting over use will deteriorate the final forecasts. (J. Knaff)
A technical comment discussing issues contained in the recent Science paper Webster et al. (2005) discussing trends in tropical cyclone intensity trends was submitted to Science. The note was rejected by one of the reviewers and is being revised for the Journal of Climate . (J. Knaff)
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