RAMM/CIRA 1st Quarter Report
Contribution to a Miami Herald Article on Hurricane Forecasting . M. DeMaria provided input to a four-part article in the Miami Herald on tropical cyclone forecasting. One of the parts focused on the apparent large over-warning by NOAA, but the analyses provided for the article showed that this situation has reversed in the past six years. Follow up information showed that the warning size can not be reduced much further unless the hurricane forecast accuracy is improved through better models and satellite and in situ observations. The follow up study was included in a response to the article prepared by the National Hurricane Center for NOAA. (M. DeMaria)
Hurricane Information Provided to the Philadelphia Inquirer: M. DeMaria provided information of the impact of the Gulf Stream on hurricane intensification to Tony Wood of the Philadelphia Inquirer for an upcoming story on the 2005 hurricane season. Research results show that the Gulf Stream usually does not have a dramatic effect on storms because the water surrounding the storm is already very warm and extends through a fairly deep layer, and the Gulf Stream is very narrow. However, the Gulf Stream rings have a more significant effect because of their larger horizontal scale, and the greater variability in the depth of the warm water. (M. DeMaria)