Talking Points for Medium Range Teletraining
Steve Flood
NCEP HPC
1. Title Slide
2. Pattern Recognition in Forecasting
3. The Big Picture: Given by the Longwave Pattern
4. Tools Used in Assessing Patterns
5. Main Objectives
a) Describe how D charts are generated, why they are practical, and illustrate their use.
b) Develop a sense of the reliability of D charts as predictors.
c) See particular model errors based on particular patterns
d) Understand how a changing mean longwave pattern relates to changes in the character of model errors.
6. What is a "D" Chart?
a) An average of 10 500 Millibar Height Plots.
b) The Types of "D" Charts
c) Composition of a "D+0" Chart
7. Composition of Other Commonly used "D" Charts
8. Why are "D" charts Practical?
9. Example of a "D-3" Chart
10. Accessing "D" Charts From the Internet- Other Useful Web Sites
11. How representative are "D" Charts?
12. Interpreting a D+3, D+6, or D+8 chart using a D-3 Chart
13. General Application of D+3 means
14. Complex Application of D+3 means
15. Case Study: May 14-29, 1999
16. D-3 centered 5/14/99
17. D-3 centered 5/19/99
18. D-3 centered 5/24/99
19. D-3 centered 4/29/99
20. Longwave Pattern Becoming More Progressive
21. May 18: Errors with a Flattening Pattern
22. Errors with a More Progressive than Forecast Pattern
23. Continued Errors with a Progressive Pattern
24. Error Consistency in a Pattern
25. May 23: Gulf of Alaska Deepening
26. May 24: Downstream Amplification
27. Time Lag in Model Response
28. Question: What Model Errors, Time Lag do we see in Rapidly Amplifying Patterns?
29. More Model Errors in a Deamplifying Longwave Pattern
30. Pattern Change in Eastern Pacific
31. More Progressive Pattern Errors
32. Model Errors are Regime Dependent
33. Other Important Considerations
34. Importance of 12 hour difference in Run Time between the MRF and ECMWF
35. How do I adjust MOS in a regime of High Uncertainty?
36. How do I adjust MOS in a regime of High Certainty?
37. Review of Main Objectives given in Slide 5
38. Conclusion: Questions, Insights, Answers
39. Title Page- US West Coast Sequence Review
40. D-3 centered 5/29/99
41. D-3 centered 6/3/99
42. D-3 centered 6/8/99
43. D-3 centered 6/13/99
44. Model Verification May 29 1999
45. Model Verification May 31 1999
46. Model Verification June 2 1999- Eastern Pacific Ridge the Key
47. Underestimated digging along the W Coast.
48. Models verify well in CA, but MRF too strong with Eastern Pacific Ridge
49. Model Errors in Extreme Deepening in Eastern Pacific
50. Models miss new System in Western Gulf of Alaska
51. Question: Model Sensitivity to errors in the shape of the Eastern Pacific Ridge
52. How long do closed upper lows sit over CA? Relate May 23-25 model verification to changes in the observed D-3 means May 19th-24th.
53. D-3 Centered 5/14/99
54. D-3 centered 5/19/99
55. Model verification in Gulf of Alaska Low Deepening
56. Model Verification in Downstream troughing over North Central States
57. Model Time Lag Responding to Longwave Pattern.
58. D-3 centered 5/14/99
59. D-3 centered 5/19/99
60. D-3 centered 5/24/99
61. D-3 centered 5/29/99
62. Challenge in Cyclonic Patterns in the Gulf of Alaska
63. Models Underestimate Deepening in the Eastern Pacific
64. Model miss new system in the Western Gulf of Alaska
65. Model Error Consistency June 12-13 in Gulf of Alaska compared to the Western CONUS.
66. Conclusion of Western CONUS reviews