The potential for deep convection is low based on the parcel trajectory plotted. Cloud tops will be much lower than the tropopause. The potential for CG lightning is low based on the small positive area (CAPE) above –10°C. The weak CAPE above –10°C suggests that graupel may not form. Without graupel, charging and lightning do not occur.

Note that vertical wind shear may be sufficient to support long-lived storms.