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Objectives:
Help forecasters make use of newly available (in AWIPS) ensemble information from the medium- and short-range ensemble forecasts (MREF and SREF, respectively) in the forecast process.

Topics:
• Review of science behind ensemble prediction systems (EPS), post-processing of EPS data, and structure of the NCEP SREF and MREF
• Uses of MREF in the forecast process.
• Uses of the SREF in the forecast process.

This training will emphasize the SREF, which will become available in AWIPS as of 24 April 2007.

Students are encouraged to take at least one of the ensemble prediction modules:
Introduction to Ensemble Prediction (webcast)

Ensemble Forecasting Explained (longer web-based module)

NOAA staff should take these through the NOAA / E-Learning LMS

A.) The interactive VISITview training session. (To be used with a VISIT instructor leading the session ). Click here to signup for teletraining. The session will last about 75 minutes. This teletraining session uses the VISITview software, where Windows PC with an Internet connection is needed.

B.) Web-based video training session.

C.) Audio playback - This VISITview file contains recorded audio and annotations and be taken at anytime. Certificates of completion for NOAA employees can be obtained through your Science Operation Officer or training point of contact. Click on the "visitauto.bat" file to start the audio playback lesson. For detailed information on how to view the recorded session click here.
Download the audio playback file for Windows at:

ftp://rammftp.cira.colostate.edu/bikos/audio/ens_warmseas_archfnl3.exe

• Ensemble Prediction (UKMET office)

Kalnay, Eugenia, 2005. Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation and Predictability. Cambridge University Press, New York, 364 pp.

Molteni, F., Buizza, R., Palmer, T. N., & Petroliagis, T., 1996: The new ECMWF ensemble prediction system: methodology and validation. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 122, 73-119.

Toth, Z, & Kalnay, E., 1993: Ensemble Forecasting at NMC: the generation of perturbations. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 74, 2317-2330.

Tracton, M S, & Kalnay, E, 1993: Operational ensemble prediction at the National Meteorological Center. Weather & Forecasting, 8, 379-398.

Zhu, Yuejian, Zoltan Toth, Richard Wobus, David Richardson, and Kenneth Mylne, 2002. The Economic Value Of Ensemble-Based Weather Forecasts. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 83, 73-83.

The talking points may be downloaded as a Word document

2007

Bill Bua (301) 763-8000 x7244