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Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Professional Development Series


Use of Ensembles in the Forecast Process (Cold Season Version)

Bill Bua (UCAR/COMET)

1) Introduction

    Medium and Short-Range ensemble prediction systems in a cold season context. Included will be a brief description of what data is available on AWIPS, a discussion of webpages that contain data beyond what AWIPS has (including the North American Ensemble Forecast System combining the NCEP global ensemble forecast system (GEFS) and the Canadian Meteorological Center ensemble forecast system (CEFS)).

    There will then be case examples from the medium and short-range relating to probabilistic forecasting in the cold season, including

    1. Using the Medium-Range forecast to recognize long-wave and synoptic patterns conducive to significant cold season weather events.
    2. For SREF, getting down to details in the forecast such as risk of freezing or frozen precipitation type, exceeding critical precipitation and temperature thresholds, and so on.
2) Prerequisites
 3) Teletraining Installation Instructions


4) Training Session Options:

    A.) The interactive VISITview training session. (To be used with a VISIT instructor leading the session ). Click here to signup for teletraining. The session will last about 75 minutes. This teletraining session uses the VISITview software, where Windows PC with an Internet connection is needed.

    B.) Web-based training session (coming soon) - a "stand alone" version viewed via a Web browser, with embedded talking points included. This lesson version may be viewed at any time. These slides are ideal for printing from the web-browser, just print preview first to choose portrait or landscape mode.

    C.) local Visitview session - This is the same version of the lesson used in a "live" VISITview teletraining session, but no connection is made to an external VISITview server. You may download the file off this page and go through the lesson on your own in "local mode" by starting the "visitlocal.bat" file. Talking points are not included in this lesson version, but can be viewed in a separate Web browser (or printed out beforehand).

5) References/Additional Links

  • Ensemble Prediction (UKMET office)

    • Kalnay, Eugenia, 2005. Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation and Predictability. Cambridge University Press, New York, 364 pp.

    Molteni, F., Buizza, R., Palmer, T. N., & Petroliagis, T., 1996: The new ECMWF ensemble prediction system: methodology and validation. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 122, 73-119.

    Toth, Z, & Kalnay, E., 1993: Ensemble Forecasting at NMC: the generation of perturbations. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 74, 2317-2330.

    Tracton, M S, & Kalnay, E, 1993: Operational ensemble prediction at the National Meteorological Center. Weather & Forecasting, 8, 379-398.

    Zhu, Yuejian, Zoltan Toth, Richard Wobus, David Richardson, and Kenneth Mylne, 2002. The Economic Value Of Ensemble-Based Weather Forecasts. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 83, 73-83.

6) Train the trainer (coming soon)
    The talking points may be downloaded as a Word document
7) Content developed/updated
    2007
8) Information contact