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Unit 9: AWIPS Multi-Source Data Displays Instructional Component 9.1.17 Predicting Supercell Motion in Operations Matthew Bunkers NWS, Rapid City, SD Other contributors: Dan Lindsey, Jon Zeitler, Dan Bikos, Jeff Braun, Karl Jungbluth, Jim LaDue, Scott Lindstrom, Mike Magsig, Paul Schlatter, and John Weaver 1) Introduction
To increase operational awareness of forecasting supercell motion - leads to better nowcasts & pathcasts of severe convective weather, as well as better derived parameters. Outline: 1) Discuss primary mechanisms controlling supercell (and thunderstorm) motion 2) Explain the B2K method for predicting supercell motion which includes: 3) Provide examples of predicting supercell motion in operations 4) Summarize and provide recommendations
4) Training Session Options: B.) Web-based training session - a "stand alone" version viewed via a Web browser, with embedded talking points included. This lesson version may be viewed at any time. These slides are ideal for printing from the web-browser, just print preview first to choose portrait or landscape mode. C.) Local Visitview session - This is the same version of the lesson used in a "live" VISITview teletraining session, but no connection is made to an external VISITview server. You may download the file off this page and go through the lesson on your own in "local mode" by starting the "visitlocal.bat" file. Talking points are not included in this lesson version, but can be viewed in a separate Web browser ( or printed out beforehand). D.) Audio playback - This VISITview file contains recorded audio and annotations and can be taken at anytime. Certificates of completion for NOAA employees can be obtained through your Science Operation Officer or training point of contact. For detailed information on how to view the recorded session click here. You may either request a DVD (with all VISIT audio playback files) OR download the file (see instructions below): Create a directory to download the audio playback file (it is about 74 MB in size) from one of the following sites: ftp://rammftp.cira.colostate.edu/bikos/audio/scmotion_audio.exe OR ftp://ftp.ssec.wisc.edu/visit/audio/scmotion_audio.exe After extracting the files into that directory click on the visitauto.bat file to start the lesson. 5) References/Additional Links Supercell Motion & Longevity Resources Download the PowerPoint version of this training session (40 MB file) Bunkers, M. J., B. A. Klimowski, J. W. Zeitler, R. L. Thompson, and M. L. Weisman, 2000: Predicting supercell motion using a new hodograph technique. Wea. Forecasting, 15, 61-79. Doswell, C. A., III, 1991: A review for forecasters on the application of hodographs to forecasting severe thunderstorms. Natl. Wea. Dig., 16, 2-16. Edwards, R, R. L. Thompson, and J. A. Hart, 2002: Verification of supercell motion forecasting techniques. Preprints, 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms, San Antonio, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, J57-J60. Excel Hodograph Spreadsheet (Download here) Ramsay, H. A., and C. A. Doswell III, 2004: Exploring hodograph-based techniques to estimate the velocity of right-moving supercells. Wea. Forecasting, in review. UCAR, 1999: Predicting Supercell Motion Using Hodograph Techniques. University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, Education, and Training (COMET), Webcast. [Available on-line at: http://meted.ucar.edu/convectn/ic411/] UCAR, 2003: Principles of Convection II: Using Hodographs. University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, Education, and Training (COMET), Webcast. [Available on-line at: http://meted.ucar.edu/mesoprim/hodograf/] Zeitler, J. W., and M. J. Bunkers, 2005: Operational forecasting of supercell motion: Review and case studies using multiple datasets. Natl. Wea. Digest, in press. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/unr/soo/scm/ZB06.pdf 6) Train the trainer
The talking points may be downloaded as a Word document
Dan Bikos (970) 491-3777 |
