VISIT: Meteorological Interpretation Blog

Below are some links to, or copies of, some perhaps lesser known meteorological training materials.  Many of these have been born out of Aviation Weather programs either here in the USA through the military Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) or the FAA, or from up north and our Canadian Neighbors.  Although some of the information is based on region specific examples, all of it (the principles, etc.) can be applied to most of our own geographic areas. 

First up is a link to NAV Canada, a privately run non-profit organization that operates Canada’s Civil Air Navigation Service.  This section contains an in depth training manuals section that is broken into six geographic regions that cover the whole of Canada.  Truly indispensable stuff here for all but tropical forecasters: NAV Canada Maunuals

Next up is the Air Force Weather Agency’s “Meteorological Techniques” which is an in depth compilation of many various weather forecasting parameters and techniques.  It is another truly indispensable item to be used for review, support, rules of thumb (tricks of the trade).   Also by AFWA, great training, practice, and supplemental review is the manual of the Mesoscale Forecast Process. 

This paper by John Mecikalski and Kristopher Bedka titled, “Forecasting Convective Initiation by Monitoring the Eveolution of Moving Cumulus in Daytime GOES Imagery” is a little long in the tooth (title-wise), but is definitely worth a read. 

More in the way of research papers / training materails will be posted here from time to time.  If you know of some lesser known, but valuable training for those of us in the weather business, please send us the information so that we may pass in on to others.�

Above is an example of two model forecast runs (12 hours apart).  The main difference comes when looking at the QPF amounts generated over ERN ND and NWRN MN between the two model runs.  The later model run on the right is able to transport more moisture to the north as opposed to the earlier run with the large QPF Bomb over ERN KS and WRN MS.  To learn more about NWP model’s ability to discern these bombs and what useful information you can still glean from “contaminated” output, please see this helpful web module put together by Pete Manousos a few years ago, by clicking here.    �

Not to diminish the importance of the entire two day conference, this is just a “good parts,” slightly abridged review and link(s) to information concerning the NWP models from NCEP that we can use. 

• “Progress on Future NCEP Production Suite:” - presented by Steve Lord, the director of the Environmental Modeling Center (EMC), diagrams and highlights where EMC, NCEP and the models are headed in the future (some near and some far).
• “National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) Update:” - Presented by Fred Toepfer, EMC’s Deputy Director announces a Navy, NOAA, and Air Force initiative to coordinate efforts to build a new National Global Ensemble Operational Predictive Capability that will: –accelerate improvements in operational performance–create opportunities for a more focused Nationalresearch effort–leverage scarce resources•Provide useful information quickly to the research community
• NCEP Central Operations:  NCEP Central Operations Timeline for the next few years.  
• Review by OPC:  Ocean Prediction Center Review NCEP, by SOO and acting Chief of the Ocean Applications Branch, Joe Sienkiewicz.  This includes the multi-grid wave model ensembles, and forecast verification.
• Mesoscale Modeling: Including “Recent Changes” to the operation. (Geoff DiMego)
• RUC/Rapid Refresh Status: Including the 2008 spring upgrade to the RUC (Stan Benjamin)
• Review by AWC: By Steve Silberberg - important issues between AWC forecasts and NCEP predictions.
• Review by SPC:  By Russ Schneider - The NCEP model suites and SPC.
• Review by HPC: By Michael Brennan - The NCEP model suites and HPC
• Introduction to Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC):  By Doug Biesecker - Covering space weather (future) models for NCEP and the importance of its operations.
• Global Weather & Climate Modeling: By Mark Iredell - Including recent changes and future plans.
• Seasonal Climate: By Hua-Lu Pan - Including the implementation of the new Climate Forecast System (CFS).
• Review by CPC: By Ed O’Lenic - Chief of Operations Branch CPC - a new look at “outlooks.”
• Drought Monitoring with NLDAS for NIDIS: By Ken Mitchell - including new dought monitoring briefing, variable into models, and what it all means.
• National Weather Service NWS Local Climate Products: By Fiona Horsfall NWS/OS - with these topics:  NWS Climate Services • Linkages to NOAA Climate Services• Equipping the field •Data issues•L3MTO• New products• Future challenges.
•  Review by the Tropical Prediction Center (TPC): By Richard Pasch - including:  •2007 SEASON OVERVIEW•VERIFICATION –SUMMARY OF MODEL AND OFFICIAL FORECAST PERFORMANCE•FORECAST ISSUES DURING 2007•OUR 2008 “WISH LIST.”
• Hurricane Modeling: By Naomi Surgi including: HWRF ’07 implementation strategy, initial HWRF config, T&E requirements • the 2007 HWRF •The Advanced HWRF.                                                                                                                                                               NCEP-EMCModelReview2007 conference: Here you will find the link to the HWRF movie as well as the entire agenda.  Let us know what you think of the new NCEP/EMC products and future products.