Predicting Supercell Motion in Operations
Matthew Bunkers - NWS, Rapid City, SD
Introduction
Objective: To increase operational awareness of forecasting supercell motion - leads to better nowcasts & pathcasts of severe convective weather, as well as better derived parameters.
Outline:
- Discuss primary mechanisms controlling supercell (and thunderstorm) motion
- Explain the B2K method for predicting supercell motion which includes:
- strengths and limitations of B2K method
- vertical wind shear perspective
- Provide examples of predicting supercell motion in operations
- Summarize and provide recommendations
Training Session Options
LMS students - to begin the training, use the web-based video or audio playback options below (if present for this session).
- Web-based video that can be taken at anytime (streamed, not recommended for low-bandwidth users). Be sure to have your speakers on and the volume loud enough to hear the presentation. For students who initiated this course in the NWS Learning Center (LMS), certificates of completion can be obtained from the learning center's "My Transcript" page upon completion of the associated quiz.
Audio playback (recommended for low-bandwidth users) - This is an audio playback version in the form of a downloadable VISITview and can be taken at anytime. Certificates of completion for NOAA employees can be obtained on the E-Learning Management System LMS
Create a directory to download the audio playback file (74 MB) from the following link: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/visit/training_sessions/predicting_supercell_motion_in_operations/predicting_supercell_motion_in_operations_audio.exe
After extracting the files into that directory click on either the visitplay.bat or visitauto.bat file to start the lesson. If both files are present, use visitauto.bat
References/Additional Links
- Talking points are available for this lesson and may be printed out to easily review the session in detail at any time.
- Supercell Motion & Longevity Resources
- Download the PowerPoint version of this training session
- Bunkers, M. J., B. A. Klimowski, J. W. Zeitler, R. L. Thompson, and M. L. Weisman, 2000: Predicting supercell motion using a new hodograph technique. Wea. Forecasting, 15, 61-79.
- Doswell, C. A., III, 1991: A review for forecasters on the application of hodographs to forecasting severe thunderstorms. Natl. Wea. Dig., 16, 2-16.
- Edwards, R, R. L. Thompson, and J. A. Hart, 2002: Verification of supercell motion forecasting techniques. Preprints, 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms, San Antonio, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, J57-J60.
- Excel Hodograph Spreadsheet (Download here)
- Ramsay, H. A., and C. A. Doswell III, 2004: Exploring hodograph-based techniques to estimate the velocity of right-moving supercells. Wea. Forecasting, in review.
- UCAR, 1999: Predicting Supercell Motion Using Hodograph Techniques. University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, Education, and Training (COMET), Webcast [Available on-line at: http://meted.ucar.edu/convectn/ic411/]
- UCAR, 2003: Principles of Convection II: Using Hodographs. University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, Education, and Training (COMET), Webcast. [Available on-line at: http://meted.ucar.edu/mesoprim/hodograpf/]
- Zeitler, J. W., and M. J. Bunkers, 2005: Operational forecasting of supercell motion: Review and case studies using multiple datasets. Natl. Wea. Digest, in press. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/unr/soo/scm/ZB06.pdf
Content Developed
- Developed: 2005
Information Contact
- Dan Bikos (970) 491-3777
- Matthew Bunkers (605) 341-9271 x677
