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| RAMMB CIRA 1st Quarter Report FY2008 |
October November December |
J. Knaff participated in the Risk Management Systems (RMS) expert elicitation held 28-30 October.
J. Knaff visited NOAA/HRD on 31 October to discuss current and future collaborations.
J. Knaff visited NCEP/TPC to better coordinate the operational transition of several tropical cyclone products. A presentation entitled “CIRA/RAMMB Tropical Cyclone Forecast Tools: Planned Operational Transitions and New Initiatives” was given at NHC.
Tropical advisories for Hurricane Noel ended 2 November at 18UTC so the operational version of the CIRA/RAMMB AMSU tropical cyclone intensity structure algorithm at NCEP did not run. However, the OAR Hurricane Research Division was conducting field operations using manned and unmanned aircraft studying extra-tropical transition of tropical cyclones. To aid their field work, additional analyses of Hurricane Noel were created on 3 November and supplied to HRD. The resulting low-level wind fields will be utilized in H*Wind analyses. Analyses were also provided to B. Hart (FSU) and C. Velden (CIMSS/UWisc). This work has lead to a presentation at the next AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. (J. Knaff)
Information about the frequency of low latitude tropical cyclones (i.e., equatorward of 10 degrees) was provided to J. Hawkins (NRLMRY). The western North Pacific, in particular a region near Guam, is one of the few places where tropical cyclones form and intensify equatorward of 10 degrees latitude. This information will be used to partially justify a request for additional aircraft reconnaissance flights during the 2008 THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (TPARC) experiment in the western North Pacific. (J. Knaff)
“Reply to Comments on “Reexamination of Tropical Cyclone Wind-Pressure Relationships”” has been submitted for publication in Weather and Forecasting. The paper addresses comments made by a Mauritius tropical cyclone forecaster (S. Veerasamy) on the Knaff and Zehr (2007) wind-pressure relationships. Specific comments concern nomenclature, operational application, methodology and its performance during the 2005 Atlantic Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma. (J. Knaff)
M. DeMaria continues to serve on the NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvements Program (HFIP) committee. (M. DeMaria)