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RAMMB: Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch CIRA: Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere

Mesoscale Convective System Forecast Index

NAM Model Runs:
00Z 06Z 12Z 18Z

MCS Index

Lifted Index

700mb Temp. Adv.

0-3km Shear

NAM Forecasts:
00 06 12 18 24
  30 36 42 48
  54 60 66 72
  78 84
Model Runs
Latest IR Satellite Loop
Satellite Verification Loops:
Last 6 Hours   Archive
Verification Statistics
MCSs of 2009
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MCS Index Description
MCS Index Manuscript
 
 
   

The table below provides general guidelines for the likelihood of MCS development given that a highly-concentrated group of thunderstorms has formed:

 
MCS index < -1.5 or undefined unfavorable
-1.5 < MCS index < 0 marginal
0 < MCS index < 3 favorable
MCS index > 3 very favorable