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RAMMB: Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch CIRA: Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere

July 22, 2009: This is an EXPERIMENTAL version of Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Product that is currently in a TESTING phase. Frequent changes will be made to this product and website without warning and support will be limited during the development and testing phase. During this time, please use the operational product supported by NESDIS at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html.

West Pacific Basin

Current Products Last Updated nwpa 2009 AUG 12 12UTC

96 Hour Loop of Real-time Formation Probability Real-Time Climatological Anomaly
Probability of TC Formation within 24 Hours
850 hPa Circulation (kt) TC Formation Theshold
> -1.71kt
Percent Pixels Colder than -40°C TC Formation Theshold
> 3.5%
850-200 hPa Vertical Shear (kt) TC Formation Theshold
< 37.9kt
Vertical Instability (°C) TC Formation Theshold
> 1.64°C
Cloud-cleared Water Vapor Brightness Temperature (°C) TC Formation Theshold
< -27.8°C
850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-5 s-1) TC Formation Theshold
< 0.525
MSLP (hPa)

Subbasin Areas

Time Series Products on Subbasins

  TC Formation Probability 850 hPa Circulation Percent GOES Pixels < -40°C 850-200 hPa Vertical Shear Vertical Instability Cloud-cleared GOES Brightness Temperature 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (10-5 s-1) MSLP Anom
NW Pacific I
NW Pacific II
NW Pacific III
NW Pacific IV
NW Pacific V