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RAMMB: Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch CIRA: Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere

Experimental Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Product

(Operational Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Product for Atlantic & E. Pacific)

Combined image of all basins
Water Vapor
Color bar   % of Dependent Genesis
Cases Exceeding Threshold
Likelihood of Formation
(ATLC / EPAC / WPAC)
Bluegray 75% 4% 7% 5%
Orange 25% 10% 26% 12%
Red 5% 20% 46% 18%
% of Dependent Genesis Cases Exceeding Threshold
% of TC formations in the sample set that have occurred within or adjacent to a grid box with a TCFP summation probability greater than or equal to a threshold value.
Likelihood of Formation
For a given TCFP summation probability value, the % of the time TC formation occurred within or adjacent to a grid box with a summation probability greater than or equal to that value. This value varies by basin.
TCFP Summation Probability
The combined TC formation probability (using P(A+B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A)P(B)) for each 4 grid box by 4 grid box subregion (20 ° lat by 20 ° lon) within the domain, defined at the center point of that subregion.