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RAMMB: Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch CIRA: Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere

July 22, 2009: This is an EXPERIMENTAL version of Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Product that is currently in a TESTING phase. Frequent changes will be made to this product and website without warning and support will be limited during the development and testing phase. During this time, please use the operational product supported by NESDIS at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html.

Atlantic Basin

Current Products Last Updated natl 2009 AUG 12 12UTC

96 Hour Loop of Real-time Formation Probability Real-Time Climatological Anomaly
Probability of TC Formation within 24 Hours
850 hPa Circulation (kt) TC Formation Threshold
> -2.91kt
Percent Pixels Colder than -40°C TC Formation Threshold
> 1.8%
850-200 hPa Vertical Shear (kt) TC Formation Threshold
< 48.7kt
Vertical Instability (°C) TC Formation Threshold
> -2.57°C
Cloud-cleared Water Vapor Brightness Temperature (°C) TC Formation Threshold
< -25.4°C
850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-5 s-1) TC Formation Threshold
< 0.941
MSLP (hPa)

Subbasin Areas

Time Series Products on Subbasins

  TC Formation Probability 850 hPa Circulation Percent WV Pixels < -40°C 850-200 hPa Vertical Shear Vertical Instability Cloud-cleared WV Brightness Temperature 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-5 s-1) MSLP Anom
Gulf of Mexico
Caribbean
East Coast
Tropical Atlantic
Sub-tropical Atlantic