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RAMMB: Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch CIRA: Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere

MCS Index Verification Stats

Convective Season To Date (since 1 April 2008)
Description of Verification Statistics
 
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00-h Forecast
MCS Index a b c d HSS TS FAR Hit POD Bias
-1.5 28300 29178 17162 1878410 0.538 0.379 0.508 0.976 0.622 1.264
0 16408 9947 29054 1897641 0.448 0.296 0.377 0.980 0.361 0.580
1.5 7032 2828 38430 1904760 0.248 0.146 0.287 0.979 0.155 0.217

12-h Forecast
MCS Index a b c d HSS TS FAR Hit POD Bias
-1.5 28457 27657 16923 1876328 0.549 0.390 0.493 0.977 0.627 1.237
0 16004 9830 29376 1894155 0.440 0.290 0.381 0.980 0.353 0.569
1.5 6731 2872 38649 1901113 0.239 0.139 0.299 0.979 0.148 0.212

24-h Forecast
MCS Index a b c d HSS TS FAR Hit POD Bias
-1.5 28117 27093 16952 1877203 0.549 0.390 0.491 0.977 0.624 1.225
0 16729 9888 28340 1894408 0.457 0.304 0.371 0.980 0.371 0.591
1.5 7072 2906 37997 1901390 0.251 0.147 0.291 0.979 0.157 0.221

36-h Forecast
MCS Index a b c d HSS TS FAR Hit POD Bias
-1.5 27914 26938 17475 1877038 0.545 0.386 0.491 0.977 0.615 1.208
0 16422 9558 28967 1894418 0.451 0.299 0.368 0.980 0.362 0.572
1.5 7054 2734 38335 1901242 0.249 0.147 0.279 0.979 0.155 0.216

48-h Forecast
MCS Index a b c d HSS TS FAR Hit POD Bias
-1.5 26456 26736 18577 1877596 0.527 0.369 0.503 0.977 0.587 1.181
0 15305 9333 29728 1894999 0.430 0.282 0.379 0.980 0.340 0.547
1.5 6958 2796 38075 1901536 0.248 0.145 0.287 0.979 0.155 0.217

60-h Forecast
MCS Index a b c d HSS TS FAR Hit POD Bias
-1.5 27078 26024 18385 1877878 0.538 0.379 0.490 0.977 0.596 1.168
0 15741 9176 29722 1894726 0.438 0.288 0.368 0.980 0.346 0.548
1.5 6920 2833 38543 1901069 0.244 0.143 0.290 0.979 0.152 0.215

72-h Forecast
MCS Index a b c d HSS TS FAR Hit POD Bias
-1.5 25735 25786 19743 1878101 0.519 0.361 0.500 0.977 0.566 1.133
0 14392 9081 31086 1894806 0.408 0.264 0.387 0.979 0.316 0.516
1.5 6191 2809 39287 1901078 0.221 0.128 0.312 0.978 0.136 0.198

84-h Forecast
MCS Index a b c d HSS TS FAR Hit POD Bias
-1.5 25132 25424 20288 1878521 0.512 0.355 0.503 0.977 0.553 1.113
0 14259 8604 31161 1895341 0.408 0.264 0.376 0.980 0.314 0.503
1.5 6238 2494 39182 1901451 0.225 0.130 0.286 0.979 0.137 0.192