The goal is to better predict when severe downslope winds can be expected in the Fort Collins, CO area by constructing a model keyed on predictors based on data collected during prior downslope windstorms. In the diagnostic text output files, values are listed for each of the predictors and threshold fields, then a probability (P) value is listed last. This is the probability (in %) that a severe windstorm will occur.
The high wind model was built using 32km NARR reanalysis data, and the NARR utilizes NAM model fields. Additional details on the fields are available in "A High Wind Statistical Prediction Model for the Northern Front Range of Colorado". These analysis products are generated every six hours from the operational 40km North American Mesoscale (NAM) model, and have an approximate 3 hour lag from the nominal run times, so the 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, and 18Z runs will be available shortly after 03Z, 09Z, 15Z, and 21Z.
- DIAGNOSTIC PROBABILITY ANALYSES - predictors, thresholds, probabilities from each analysis time
- HIGH WIND PROBABILITY FORECASTS - forecast probabilities out to 84h from each analysis time
- LATEST RUN FORECAST DIAGNOSTICS - predictors, thresholds, probabilities out to 84h for latest analysis time
- Time series (-120h to +84h) of high wind probability at Fort Collins:
- Latest E-W cross-section of potential temperature and zonal wind through Fort Collins:
- [ARCHIVE OF FORECASTS AND PLOTS]